Oil is looking fairly subdued today amid a stronger dollar, and ahead of a likely build to inventories from tomorrow’s weekly EIA report. Hark, before that, here are five things to consider in oil and energy markets today:
1) It was super-interesting to see that Pemex said yesterday that its oil exports jumped last month. We discussed on October 1 how we had seen them ramp up in our ClipperData, despite production slipping to its lowest level in over three decades.
We said at the time that this increase can in part be explained away by falling refinery runs, which dropped to a 26-year low in August – down 20 percent on year-ago levels. Pemex’s announcement of a 22 percent jump in exports in September was particularly heartening; it mirrored our number exactly. (I love it when a plan comes together).
2) From one sign of upside to another, and Libyan crude loadings are ramping up so far this month, as progress is made in re-opening ports and re-starting oil fields. After loadings averaged under 200,000 bpd through the first nine months of the year, loadings have risen to 432,000 bpd so far in October – or a total of 10.375 million barrels.
3) IEA has just released its renewable energy medium-term market report for 2016. Renewables in global electricity generation are set to increase from 23 percent last year to 28 percent by 2021, with capacity growing by 42 percent. Offshore wind projects by 2021 could see cost reductions of 40 to 50 percent, while onshore costs could decrease by 15 percent. Solar panels are projected to be a quarter cheaper.
China is leading the charge in terms of renewable energy expansion, set to account for 40 percent of growthto 2021. By this time, more than a third of global solar PV and onshore wind capacity will be located in China.
India’s solar PV capacity is set to grow eight fold, while Mexico’s clean energy capacity is forecast to nearly double by 2021. Capacity growth in the US is set to be faster than that in the EU. Weak electricity demand growth, in combination with policy uncertainty is holding back the EU.
4) Two standout stats relating to renewables from IEA are that about 500,000 solar panels were installed each day across the globe last year. The second is that looking ahead, sixty wind turbines will be installed each dayover the next five years.
5) EIA makes some interesting points today. It says global offshore production accounts for nearly 30 percent of total global production, and last year it was at its highest level since 2010. Offshore production is over 27 million barrels per day, and comes from over 50 countries. Some 43 percent of total offshore production comes from five countries: Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico, Norway and the U.S.