By Josh Lederman
Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama’s new pollution limits for power plants have set off an avalanche of information about what the rules will cost, how they will affect your health and how far they will go toward curbing climate change.
There’s just one problem: Almost none of it is based in reality.
That’s because Obama’s proposed rules, which aim to cut carbon dioxide emissions from power plants 30 percent by 2030, rely on states developing their own customized plans to meet their targets. Among the options are switching to cleaner fuel sources, boosting efficiency to reduce demand for electricity and trading pollution permits through cap-and-trade.
At the earliest, states won’t submit plans until mid-2016; some states could have until 2018. So the true impact won’t be known for years.
But that’s not stopping the White House, environmental groups and the energy industry from serving up speculation in heaping doses.
What we know and don’t know about the effects of the pollution rules:
Electricity prices
The Obama administration says: The proposal will shrink electricity bills about 8 percent.
Supporters of energy deregulation say: “Americans can expect to pay $200 more each year for their electricity.” — Institute for Energy Research, a group backed by the Koch brothers.
The reality: It depends how you crunch the numbers. The administration acknowledges that the price per kilowatt hour will go up a few percentage points. But the administration says your total power bill will be lower because the plan incentivizes efficiency and will drive down demand. In other words, you’ll pay more for the electricity you buy, but you’ll buy less of it.
The environment
Environmentalists say: “This is the biggest step we’ve ever taken for the biggest challenge we’ve ever faced.” — League of Conservation Voters
The coal industry says: “The proposal will have practically no effect on global climate change.” — American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity
The reality: The plan would prevent about 430 million tons of carbon from reaching the atmosphere. It’s a 30 percent cut over the next 15 years, but that’s compared with 2005 levels. Since 2005, power plans have cut those emissions nearly 13 percent, so they’re already about halfway toward the goal.
But U.S. fossil-fueled plants account for only 6 percent of global carbon emissions, and Obama’s plan doesn’t touch the rest of the world’s emissions. It won’t cut as big a chunk as Obama’s previous fuel economy rules for cars and trucks.
The economy
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce says: The plan will cost the economy more than $50 billion per year.
The administration says: By 2030, the rules will have an annual cost of up to $8.8 billion, but that cost will be far offset by annual climate and health benefits of up to $93 billion.
The reality: We won’t know until states decide how to meet their targets. Some states rely more heavily on coal, so different regions will be affected in different ways. Still, it’s a safe bet that companies that produce natural gas, solar panels or renewable technologies will get a boost, while coal will take a hit.
To calculate health care savings, the administration uses a somewhat morbid formula that puts a dollar amount on ailments averted — everything from heart attacks to bronchitis and asthma. It’s an inexact science, and there are plenty of caveats.
Jobs
The conservative Heritage Foundation says: “Nearly 600,000 jobs would be lost.”
The United Mine Workers of America says: “We estimate that the total impact will be about 485,000 permanent jobs lost.”
The Environmental Protection Agency says: The rules could cost close to 80,000 jobs by 2030 at power plants and fossil fuel companies, but could create about 111,000 jobs in energy efficiency.
The reality: It’s tough to tell. Not every coal miner who loses a job will find work installing solar panels and windmills. On the other hand, the low cost of natural gas has already prompted a shift away from coal, meaning some of those jobs will disappear with or without new pollution limits.
Public health
The EPA says: Up to 6,600 premature deaths, 150,000 asthma attacks in children and close to half a million sick days will be averted.
The American Lung Association says: “Cleaning up carbon pollution from power plants will save lives and have an immediate, positive impact on public health.”
The coal industry says: “The White House continues to perpetuate the nonexistent linkage between EPA’s new carbon regulations and public health.” — American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity
The reality: Even the EPA says that the quantitative health benefits of the new rule are “illustrative examples.” It’s true that carbon dioxide emissions aren’t directly linked to health problems like asthma. But because the rule will decrease the amount of electricity made from burning coal, it will help reduce other pollutants that coal-fired power plants release. Those pollutants create smog and soot, which do cause health problems.
Critics contend the administration is “double counting” those benefits.
Associated Press writer Dina Cappiello contributed to this report.
Also on FuelFix:
Energy companies dominate Houston’s Fortune 500 members
Photo: Mayra Beltran / Houston Chronicle
No. 2: Exxon Mobil
Previous Rank: 2
Headquarters: Irving, Texas
[Photo: Exxon Mobil's Corp's Baytown complex]
No. 2: Exxon Mobil
Previous Rank: 2
Headquarters: Irving, Texas
[Photo: Exxon Mobil's Corp's Baytown complex]
Photo: Mayra Beltran / Houston Chronicle
No. 3: Chevron
Previous Rank: 3
Headquarters: San Ramon, California
[Photo: A flag flies in view of a Chevron gas station.]
No. 3: Chevron
Previous Rank: 3
Headquarters: San Ramon, California
[Photo: A flag flies in view of a Chevron gas station.]
Photo: Elaine Thompson / Associated Press
No. 6: Phillips 66
Previous Rank: 4
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Phillips 66 operates the Gulf Coast Fractionators facility in Mont Belvieu, Texas.]
No. 6: Phillips 66
Previous Rank: 4
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Phillips 66 operates the Gulf Coast Fractionators facility in Mont Belvieu, Texas.]
Photo: ©2012 Hall Puckett
No. 47: ConocoPhillips
Previous Rank: 45
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: A platform works on ConocoPhillips' Jasmine Field project in the North Sea.]
No. 47: ConocoPhillips
Previous Rank: 45
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: A platform works on ConocoPhillips' Jasmine Field project in the North Sea.]
Photo: GARTH HANNUM / ConocoPhillips
No. 10: Valero
Previous Rank: 9
Headquarters: San Antonio, Texas
[Photo: The Valero Energy Corp. logo is displayed at the company's fueling station in San Francisco, California.]
No. 10: Valero
Previous Rank: 9
Headquarters: San Antonio, Texas
[Photo: The Valero Energy Corp. logo is displayed at the company's fueling station in San Francisco, California.]
Photo: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg
No. 54: Energy Transfer Equity
Previous Rank: 161
Headquarters: Dallas, Texas
No. 54: Energy Transfer Equity
Previous Rank: 161
Headquarters: Dallas, Texas
No. 56: Enterprise Products Partners
Previous Rank: 64
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Enterprise Products Partners has completed construction on the seventh natural gas liquids fractionation unit at its Mont Belvieu complex.]
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No. 56: Enterprise Products Partners
Previous Rank: 64
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Enterprise Products Partners has completed construction on the seventh natural gas liquids fractionation unit
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Photo: Enterprise Products Partners / Enterprise Products Partners
No. 70: Plains GP Holdings
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Greg Armstrong, CEO of Plains All American Pipeline, at the company headquarters.]
No. 70: Plains GP Holdings
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Greg Armstrong, CEO of Plains All American Pipeline, at the company headquarters.]
Photo: Dave Rossman / For the Houston Chronicle
No. 75: Tesoro Corp.
Previous Rank: 95
Headquarters: San Antonio, Texas
[Photo: A refinery is shown in this April 2, 2010 file photo.]
No. 75: Tesoro Corp.
Previous Rank: 95
Headquarters: San Antonio, Texas
[Photo: A refinery is shown in this April 2, 2010 file photo.]
Photo: Ted S. Warren / AP
No. 103: Halliburton
Previous Rank: 106
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff, in straw hat, and Texas State Senator Carlos Uresti, in dark suit, arrive at Halliburton's San Antonio Operations Center on Loop 1604 just west of I-37 on the south side, for their grand opening.]
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No. 103: Halliburton
Previous Rank: 106
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff, in straw hat, and Texas State Senator Carlos Uresti, in dark suit, arrive at Halliburton's
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Photo: BOB OWEN / San Antonio Express-News
No. 84: Hess Corporation
Previous Rank: 75
Headquarters: New York, New York
[Photo: Hess Tower in Houston is pictured. ]
No. 84: Hess Corporation
Previous Rank: 75
Headquarters: New York, New York
[Photo: Hess Tower in Houston is pictured. ]
Photo: Mayra Beltran / Houston Chronicle
No. 131: National Oilwell Varco
Previous Rank: 144
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Ken Rickley, left, and Jacolbe Phillips assembling a double ram blowout preventer at National Oilwell Varco. Ken is a BOP assembly lead man, and Jacolbe is a BOP assembler.]
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No. 131: National Oilwell Varco
Previous Rank: 144
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Ken Rickley, left, and Jacolbe Phillips assembling a double ram blowout preventer at National Oilwell Varco. Ken is
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Photo: Gary Fountain / For the Chronicle
No. 132: Baker Hughes
Previous Rank: 135
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Martin Craighead, president and CEO of Baker Hughes Incorporated, speaks at the facility located at 9110 Grogans Mill Road in The Woodlands.]
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No. 132: Baker Hughes
Previous Rank: 135
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Martin Craighead, president and CEO of Baker Hughes Incorporated, speaks at the facility located at 9110 Grogans Mill Road in
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Photo: Melissa Phillip / Houston Chronicle
No. 145: HollyFrontier
Previous Rank: 143
Headquarters: Dallas, Texas
No. 145: HollyFrontier
Previous Rank: 143
Headquarters: Dallas, Texas
No. 179: Apache Corp.
Previous Rank: 167
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Apache's Egyptian operations include the Salam natural gas plant in the Western Desert.]
No. 179: Apache Corp.
Previous Rank: 167
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Apache's Egyptian operations include the Salam natural gas plant in the Western Desert.]
Photo: Apache Corp. / Apache Corp.
No. 188: Marathon Oil
Previous Rank: 174
Headquarters: Houston
[Photo: A Marathon Oil drilling rig works in the Bakken Shale of North Dakota.]
No. 188: Marathon Oil
Previous Rank: 174
Headquarters: Houston
[Photo: A Marathon Oil drilling rig works in the Bakken Shale of North Dakota.]
Photo: Marathon Oil / Marathon Oil
No. 200: ONEOK
Previous Rank: 219
Heaquarters: Tulsa, Oklahoma
No. 200: ONEOK
Previous Rank: 219
Heaquarters: Tulsa, Oklahoma
No. 202: Anadarko Petroleum
Previous Rank: 207
Headquarters: The Woodlands, Texas
[Photo: Don Vardeman, vice president of worldwide projects management at Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, talks at Kiewit Offshore Services in front of the topside production module that will be attached to the Lucius truss spar.]
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No. 202: Anadarko Petroleum
Previous Rank: 207
Headquarters: The Woodlands, Texas
[Photo: Don Vardeman, vice president of worldwide projects management at Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, talks at Kiewit
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Photo: Melissa Phillip / Houston Chronicle
No. 203: EOG Resources
Previous Rank: 233
Headquarters: Houston
[Photo: EOGs ongoing improvements in drilling and completion techniques transformed the Bakken from a steady development program into a high rate-of-return growth play.]
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No. 203: EOG Resources
Previous Rank: 233
Headquarters: Houston
[Photo: EOGs ongoing improvements in drilling and completion techniques transformed the Bakken from a steady development program into a
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Photo: Ken Childress Photography / EOG Resources
No. 206: Kinder Morgan
Previous Rank: 265
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Work crews work at the Kinder Morgan's BOSTCO storage terminals at the Houston Ship Channel.]
No. 206: Kinder Morgan
Previous Rank: 265
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Work crews work at the Kinder Morgan's BOSTCO storage terminals at the Houston Ship Channel.]
Photo: J. Patric Schneider / For the Chronicle
No. 281: Western Refining
Previous Rank: 283
Headquarters: El Paso, Texas
No. 281: Western Refining
Previous Rank: 283
Headquarters: El Paso, Texas
No. 286: Cameron International
Previous Rank: 310
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Jack Moore, CEO of Cameron International, is seen Tuesday at his corporation's West Loop headquarters. ]
No. 286: Cameron International
Previous Rank: 310
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Jack Moore, CEO of Cameron International, is seen Tuesday at his corporation's West Loop headquarters. ]
Photo: Steve Ueckert / Houston Chronicle
No. 333: CenterPoint Energy
Previous Rank: 344
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: CenterPoint employee Shane Sobnosky prepares to leave for Oklahoma to assist with widespread power outages.]
No. 333: CenterPoint Energy
Previous Rank: 344
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: CenterPoint employee Shane Sobnosky prepares to leave for Oklahoma to assist with widespread power outages.]
Photo: Cody Duty / Houston Chronicle
No. 368: FMC Technologies
Previous Rank: 417
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: A 15K Enhanced Vertical Deepwater Tree also EVDT at the FMC Technologies booth at OTC 2013 at Reliant Park Tuesday.]
No. 368: FMC Technologies
Previous Rank: 417
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: A 15K Enhanced Vertical Deepwater Tree also EVDT at the FMC Technologies booth at OTC 2013 at Reliant Park Tuesday.]
Photo: James Nielsen / Houston Chronicle
No. 395: Targa Resources
Previous Rank: 435
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Targa Resources operates the Mount Belvieu Terminal and Cedar Bayou Fractionator facilities.]
No. 395: Targa Resources
Previous Rank: 435
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Targa Resources operates the Mount Belvieu Terminal and Cedar Bayou Fractionator facilities.]
Photo: na / Targa Resources
No. 399: Celanese Corp.
Previous Rank: 396
Headquarters: Irving, Texas
[Photo: Process Technician, Eric Gazda, walks in front of the Vinyl Acetate Unit at the Celanese Corporation.]
No. 399: Celanese Corp.
Previous Rank: 396
Headquarters: Irving, Texas
[Photo: Process Technician, Eric Gazda, walks in front of the Vinyl Acetate Unit at the Celanese Corporation.]
Photo: Michael Paulsen / Houston Chronicle
No. 414: Calpine Corp.
Previous Rank: 459
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Calpine owns the Baytown Energy Center, a gas-fired cogeneration plant.]
No. 414: Calpine Corp.
Previous Rank: 459
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
[Photo: Calpine owns the Baytown Energy Center, a gas-fired cogeneration plant.]
Photo: Calpine Corp. / Calpine Corp.
No. 438: Energy Future Holdings
Previous Rank: 447
Headquarters: Dallas, Texas
[Photo: Power lines owned by Energy Future Holdings]
No. 438: Energy Future Holdings
Previous Rank: 447
Headquarters: Dallas, Texas
[Photo: Power lines owned by Energy Future Holdings]
No. 461: Spectra Energy
Previous Rank: 475
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
No. 461: Spectra Energy
Previous Rank: 475
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
Photo: Steve Ueckert / Houston Chronicle
No. 467: Calumet Specialty Products Partners
Previous Rank: 514
Headquarters: Indianapolis, Indiana
No. 467: Calumet Specialty Products Partners
Previous Rank: 514
Headquarters: Indianapolis, Indiana
No. 478: MRC Global
Previous Rank: 451
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
No. 478: MRC Global
Previous Rank: 451
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
No. 485: Buckeye Partners
Previous Rank: 544
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
No. 485: Buckeye Partners
Previous Rank: 544
Headquarters: Houston, Texas
No. 491: Noble Energy
Previous Rank: 535
Headquarters: Houston
[Photo: Noble Energy hosts a booth during the NAPE Expo held at the George R. Brown Convention Center on Thursday, Feb. 6, 2014, in Houston.]
No. 491: Noble Energy
Previous Rank: 535
Headquarters: Houston
[Photo: Noble Energy hosts a booth during the NAPE Expo held at the George R. Brown Convention Center on Thursday, Feb. 6, 2014, in Houston.]
Photo: Mayra Beltran / Houston Chronicle
No. 661: NuStar Energy
Previous Rank: 389
Headquarters: San Antonio, Texas
[Photo: Steven Schmidt, right, Terminal Manager of NuStar in Port Corpus Christi, talks with Greg Matula, also of NuStar, at the contraction site of the new pier for oil tankers.]
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No. 661: NuStar Energy
Previous Rank: 389
Headquarters: San Antonio, Texas
[Photo: Steven Schmidt, right, Terminal Manager of NuStar in Port Corpus Christi, talks with Greg Matula, also of NuStar, at the
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Photo: Bob Owen / San Antonio Express-News
The reality behind Obama's power plant pollution limits