Sure, the speculators, pontificators and politicians are shouting about what’s going to happen to the price of oil next, but what about those people who actually know where to find the stuff?
I’m talking about geologists, those folks who took AP science classes in high school, actually did their homework in college and are now reaping the benefits of employment in a booming industry. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists polled its members at a recent conference about where they think oil prices are going. Not surprising, the results in a nutshell are “up”:
• Most see $150-plus oil in 2013
• 61 percent see Peak Oil occurring in less than 10 years (one-third say less than 5 years)
• Despite this they all believe hydrocarbons will still be a primary energy source in 2033.
• Among geoscience managers 74 percent see Peak Oil within 10 years
• Among current hot prospects, only Deepwater Brazil and Canadian Oil Sands are seen by a majority as having a potential of more than 5 billion barrels of new discoveries (i.e. really big finds)
• Nuclear is the next best candidate for fuel source, seen by 36 percent as a primary energy source in 2033
Below is a chart showing what percentage of those respondents think a particular energy source will make up a particular amount of the total:
“AMT” means amount of energy that comes from a given source.
(The survey was done by Seismic Micro-Technology, Inc. Survey of 150 respondents, 46% of which are 45-years-old on up, and 60 percent are from North America)