The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently issued a new working paper called “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology” (free PDF), which should be of interest to people who are following “peak oil” issues. This is a research paper that is being published to elicit comments and debate; it does not necessarily represent IMF views or policy.

The paper considers two different approaches for modeling future oil supply:

1. The economic/technological approach, used by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and others, and
2. The geological view, used in peak oil forecasts, such as forecasts made by Colin ...

This is a guest post by Tobias Rasmussen, Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF, and Agustin Roitman, Economist, IMF. This post originally appeared on the VoxEU.org website here.

Recent developments in oil markets and the global economy have, once again, triggered concerns about the impact of oil price shocks around the world. This column wonders whether the fuss is really necessary. It presents evidence of relatively small negative effects of oil price increases.

Increases in international oil prices over the past couple years, explained partly by strong growth in large emerging and developing economies, have raised ...