EIA’s monthly U.S. oil estimate lags weekly data

Oil production in the United States has climbed by 318,000 barrels a day since OPEC began cutting its output this year, new monthly data show.

But it may not be coming in as fast as the U.S. government predicted.

Domestic oil output grew to about 9.09 million barrels a day in March, up from 9.03 million the month before and 8.78 million in December, according to the Energy Department’s monthly estimates, which are widely considered more accurate than its formula-based weekly statistics.

Related: U.S. oil production rose 60,000 barrels a day in January

The March oil-production figure is about 0.5 percent lower than the EIA’s weekly estimate of 9.15 million barrels a day for the same month, a sign that the nation’s output could come in lower than the agency has forecast this year.

The EIA believes daily oil production already rose to 9.32 million barrels in mid-May, but some analysts have said the Energy Information Administration’s models of shale oil production may have been skewed by the five-year boom.

In March, according to the monthly data, daily oil production in Texas remained barely registered an increase, edging up 0.1 percent to 3.3 million barrels. Daily oil production in Wyoming surged 8.5 percent to 203,000 barrels, and it increased in Oklahoma by 2.4 percent to 425,000 barrels.

Related: Oil production accelerating in the Permian Basin, EIA says