BP spill deal possible this week after Mitsui, analyst says

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BP Gulf oil spill

BP Plc (BP/), operator of the Macondo well that caused the U.S.’s worst oil spill, may reach a settlement for the disaster this week after a partner agreed on fines, an Oppenheimer & Co. analyst said.

Mitsui & Co. (8031)’s MOEX Offshore 2007 LLC will pay $90 million to the U.S. and five states to settle pollution violations related to 2010 spill. While BP will probably have to accept different terms as the operator, the settlement suggests that BP would pay $585 million for violations, less than 20 percent of what the company has provisioned, said Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer in New York. BP rose to the highest since March in London trading.

“This is only the civil part and does not include possible criminal charges and penalties,” Gheit said in an e-mailed response to questions. “The trials will begin later this month and all parties are eager to settle before then. So there could be very important decisions this week.”

BP shares remain 26 percent below their level in London before the spill and the company has claimed about $40 billion in charges to cover the costs of litigation and cleanup. Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said Feb. 7 that the company would like to reach a settlement if the terms are right.

Shares rose as much as 2.4 percent to 500.4 pence, the highest intraday price since March 7. The stock was at 500.2 pence at 8:21 a.m. London time. BP’s U.S.-traded shares rose 2 percent after the MOEX announcement on Feb. 17, which came when trading in London had closed.

The MOEX settlement doesn’t affect claims against or potential recoveries from other companies over the spill, the U.S. Justice Department said Feb 17. MOEX, a unit of Tokyo-based Mitsui, no longer owns a share of the lease.

Well Ownership

BP had a 65 percent interest in the Macondo well, MOEX had 10 percent and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) had a 25 percent stake. The settlement suggests that Anadarko will be liable for about $225 million in Clean Water Act fines if the terms are the same, Gheit said.

“We can’t really read across anything with certainty,” said Jason Kenney, an analyst at Banco Santander SA (SAN) in Edinburgh. “But this implies that a settlement is possible and perhaps more likely for others, too.”

The settlement is the first of what may be a series of agreements with the U.S. as lawsuits over the 2010 spill approach a trial set for Feb. 27. The U.S. Justice Department sued MOEX, BP, Anadarko and Transocean Ltd. (RIG), which owned the rig that exploded, in December 2010, seeking fines for each barrel of oil discharged.

New Orleans Trial

U.S. District Judge Carl Barbier in New Orleans, who’s overseeing much of the spill litigation, has scheduled a non- jury trial to determine liability and apportion fault for the disaster.

A U.S. motion to hold BP, Anadarko and Transocean liable by law for Clean Water Act violations is pending before Barbier. A ruling against the defendants would allow the U.S. to seek fines against each company of as much as $1,100 per barrel of oil spilled, without having to prove the issue of liability at trial.

The Clean Water Act also allows the government to seek fines of as much as $4,300 for each spilled barrel on a finding of gross negligence. The government estimates that 4.1 million barrels were spilled before the well was capped, putting BP at risk of fines of as much as $17.6 billion.

Set Aside

BP set aside $3.5 billion for Clean Water Act fines, assuming $1,100 a barrel and its own estimate of 3.2 million barrels spilled, according to an annual report extract posted on the company website. The company is negotiating with the U.S. over settlement of the Clean Water Act claims, according to a person familiar with the talks.

Daren Beaudo, a BP spokesman in Houston, declined to comment on Feb. 17 on the MOEX settlement or any possible BP agreement with the U.S. on pollution law claims.

“You cannot extrapolate a number for BP, but it is positive in both being proportionate and timely,” said Stuart Joyner, an analyst at Investec Securities Ltd. in London. “It suggests a moderate to good chance of a settlement pre- commencement of the hearings on the 27th.”

4 Comments

  1. BarksintheCountry

    However, if the corrupt obama group continues its war on the energy industry, this conjecture could turn to be wildly too optimistic.

    #1
  2. Hotshot007

    BP Fine Calculation

    $10M + 25 Years Prison —————- Bribing US DOE officials
    $20M + 25 Years Prison —————- Bribing Whitehouse officials
    $10M + 25 Years Prison —————- Illegal campaign contributions
    $11M + 1100 Years Prison ————- 11 Murder Counts
    $5M + 500 Years Prison —————- Negligent Lost Time Work Injuries
    $50M + 75 Years Prison —————- Deliberately Scuttling MODU
    $20B + 1,500 Years Prison ————- Largest oceanic oil spill in American History
    $5M + 25 Years Prison —————– Perjury before Congress
    $ 5M + 25 Years Prison —————- Perjury to FBI
    $ 5M + 25 Years Prison —————- Perjury in USCG hearings
    $10M + 50 Years Prison ————— Obstruction Justice, miscellaneous

    Total ~$20,111,000,000 + 3375 Years Prison

    Less Cash discount, for additional Whitehouse cash bribes, additional Whitehouse offshore account bribes, miscellaneous political bribes, additional illegal campaign contributions

    $3,500,000,000 + 225 Years Prison —— Starting Point Negotiations

    Less Cash discount, for additional Whitehouse cash bribes, additional Whitehouse offshore account bribes, miscellaneous political bribes, additional illegal campaign contributions

    $585,000,000 + 25 Years Probation —- Final settlement

    Easy Math

    #2
  3. CAD1936

    BP will be forced to settle because no one in the industry wants the U.S. public to know just how non caring, arrogant and grossly negligent their conduct in the Gulf has been. The industry looks with disdain on the welfare of our environment, the safety of their employees and the welfare of the people in this country. The only thing they really are concerned with is the profits to enable them to keep purchasing, through political contributions, so many in our government.

    I would wager that BP will insist that certain depositions, reports and writings remain under seal and not available for public scrutiny. For example, we have not, as yet had a ruling on the taking of BP’s chief man on the scene’s sworn testimony and what all that will produce. With all the stonewalling, erroneous information, and evasion that has continued by those in the industry throughout the spill and the litigation, THE AMERICAN PUBLIC SHOULD HAVE THE RIGHT TO KNOW THE TRUTH IN THIS DISASTER.

    #3
  4. Lunchtime O'Booze

    CAD

    I finally understand. You are an investment banker aren’t you??

    You can only be that for such a knowledgeable and caring assessment of the attitudes of the oil and gas industry – as perceived from the reading room at your club, as you luxuriate in the rich mahogany surrounds and smell of leather bound books.

    #4