This post was written by Yvette Loch, who interned at the Baker Institute Energy Forum and is a student at Awty International School.
With the high gas prices we are facing today, the popularity of the fuel-efficient car is seeing its inevitable increase. Two of the fiercer competitors of this type of car are the Chevrolet Volt and the Nissan Leaf, both released within days of each other in December 2010. Although the Volt was more substantially advertised and thus greatly anticipated, the Leaf (according to the sales numbers), is dominating. In 2011, Nissan sold 9,674 Leafs compared with 7,671 Chevy Volts. We can only hypothesize as to why this may be the case.
Consumer values of course play a key role in this. Customers have to like what they are buying and according to the Detroit Free Press, people in the fuel economy market are looking to reduce dependence on foreign oil. The all-electric Leaf fully accomplishes this with a 100-mile limit per charge. The half-fuel half-electric Volt can travel only 25-30 miles on electricity alone and then must rely on gasoline. The Volt’s complexity has an additional downside, a higher price: without federal or state tax credits that apply to both vehicles equally, the 2012 Chevy Volt has a sticker price of $39,995, while the 2011 Leaf has a sticker price of $33,630. Aside from the price and fuel costs, the Leaf fits the standard five people, while the Volt, due to the battery pack consuming the space in-between the two back seats, holds only four passengers.
The production rates of each car also contribute to their sales numbers, as the faster the cars are produced and shipped to dealerships, the sooner they can be sold. Neither Nissan nor Chevrolet has proved particularly successful in meeting production targets, but recent issues have been especially acute for Chevy, even with the tragic earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan and affected Nissan. Extensive retooling at the Detroit plant where the Volt is made has drastically reduced the Volts available for sale.
Looking forward, both companies are planning to dramatically increase their production, but the targets for the Leaf are more ambitious. Autobloggreen tells us that Chevrolet claimed in October of 2010 that they aimed to mass-produce 10,000 or 15,000 cars in 2011, and 60,000 in 2012. The Nissan Leaf also had a goal of 50,000 cars produced for 2011, but by June, the company realized it wasn’t going to reach it. However, both Nissan and Chevrolet are on the road to recovery. By January 2012 Chevrolet plans to reach their original goal of 5,000 cars produced monthly, and Nissan plans to have their new factory in Smyrna, TN rolling out up to 150,000 Leafs annually by late 2012. As a result, in seems that in the next few years the Leaf will be producing (and potentially selling) more than the Volt.
However, the Volt may begin to catch up with the Leaf. Looking at social media could be a good leading indicator. Back in July 2010, the Leaf also had more than 54,000 fans on Facebook, more that the Volt’s 24,000. The 2:1 ratio continued through the summer of 2011. However, while about 145,000 like the Leaf, roughly 155,000 like the Volt.
But for now, the Leaf seems to be winning the battle of the electrified vehicles.
Good article Yvette & James. Keep us posted regularly in the future. The Leaf price is a big part of the story. If they could get it down to $29K they could see huge sales gains. Maybe the economies of scale will kick in on battery costs some day. The Volt concept is great long term if the price was right. Two car households buy the Leaf, one car households have to buy the Volt if they can afford it or not buy electric at all. The problem with public chargers is we are impatient. What do we do in the 30 minutes while we are getting an 80% charge? Grocery stores or Starbucks need to pay attention to this.
I often get 43 to 45 miles on batteries only on my Volt, and in warmer, dry weather, I can get 50+. Maybe if folks knew what the Volt was truly capable of, it would help…
As a Nissan LEAF owner, I can tell you that it is the fact that the Chevy Volt burns gasoline that made me turn away from it. I would be frustrated if I could only go 40 miles, then start burning gasoline because the whole idea behind an EV is not to buy gas.
Never again will I buy a waste of recycled steel from G.M.
Maybe they should start selling hats.
I think the issue is Price, Price, Price. The Volt shares its underpinnings with the Cruze, less one passenger. You can buy a Cruze for anywhere from $17k to 23k and its pretty fuel efficient. Why would you pay $40,000 for a Volt (less $7,500 tax credit). I think both the Leaf and Volt will see sales tank this year as all the rich, techy, early adopters get satisfied. I read the ave income of a Volt buyer was $170,000 per year. Do they really need a tax credit? The next step is to get the pricing down a lot. The auto OEM’s do not seem to want to work together to share batteries or other parts to drop the pricing. Too bad.
There really could be several components to the issues but they all revolve around the architecture of the incentive. Would it not be appropriate for government as the conduit for our taxpayer money to specify some parameters? They could be physical or electrical. A specific size and shape or voltage or even same battery as Richard suggests. Why couldn’t we put a limit on the total cost of the vehicle for the incentive to be applicable or some formula for reduced incentive if over the price tag limitation? Government has an investment in GM and some of the battery manufacturers. Wouldn’t it be sensible for there to be some cooperation and linkage? It may be too early in EV development to demand some standardization. We have laws restricting some cooperation by manufacturers but China has promoted the concept of industries operating in unison. Maybe we need to re-think our incentives in many fields.