Gasoline prices continue their march to $4

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Gas prices

Gasoline prices continued to their steadily rise to $4 across the United States as an analyst warned that prices could spike 60 cents through the spring and reach $4 by Memorial Day.

Gas prices edged up to $3.40, up 2 cents from last week, in Houston, according to the AAA gas gauge. Across Texas, prices are up and penny to $3.39, and nationally, drivers are paying $3.48, a rise of 3 cents, at the pump, according to AAA.

Tom Kloza, chief analyst for Oil Price Information Services, warned those prices are likely to rise significant over the next few months because of three north east refineries closing, seasonal demand and high oil prices.

“I think it’s going to be a chaotic spring, with huge prices increases in some places,” Kloza told USA Today.

Gasoline prices have been rising in 2012, despite January typically being a month where prices decline before rising again in late February. Instead, they’ve done the exact opposite, Kloza notes.

The average national price of gasoline in January was $3.37, or 28 cents higher than in 2011. It also marks the most expensive average month prices in January ever, and consumers, who typical purchase 50 gallons a month, are spending $14 more this year.

And it’s likely to get worse before it gets better.

Kloza said the national average for unleaded gasoline could hit $4.05 this summer, but some cities (primarily on the coasts) could see prices even higher than that. Pennsylvania could be the first state to top $4, he said.

Prices are predicted to during the fall of 2012.

The forecast comes as gasoline demand continues to be incredibly anemic because of the higher-than-normal prices, Kloza said.

Kloza said using “only the petroleum statistics from the Energy Information Administration, MasterCard, and the American Petroleum Institute, I would be tempted to conclude that the U.S. is in recession.”

So why are prices so high?

The short answer is tensions with Iran are boosting oil prices, speculators are bidding up future contracts on gasoline and three northeast refineries are closing, likely cutting supply.

Oh, and the U.S. is exporting gasoline at a record pace to developing countries that haven’t seen the same demand slump.

Kloza said one thing that won’t impact gasoline prices in 2012 is the Keystone XL pipeline, but it might be a different story in 2013.

“Reasonable people can have various discussions about the merits, advantages and disadvantages of the project, but the Keystone issue can be blamed for 2013 and beyond prices environments,” Kloza said. “But not for 2012.”

26 Comments

  1. Dollar

    ” ………….Oh, and the U.S. is exporting gasoline at a record pace to developing countries that haven’t seen the same demand slump. ”

    Not buying this reason.

    With refining capacity announced yesterday at 82% , importing oil to refine for other countries, is merely keeping the refiners busy and in work.

    Operating at that capacity tells me that refiners are meeting demand in domestic USA. If they were at 90% and above and still exporting, then that would signal that exports were putting upward pressure on domestic prices.

    Where would refining capacity be if they did not import oil to export the refined product ? I would guess they would be laying off workers.

    #1
  2. joe bleaux

    I’m happy to pay even more if it results in a presendential change.

    #2
  3. w00t

    Self Segregation Tax…moving to the boonies to avoid minorities and offer schools with less urban Democrats has gotten very, very expensive.

    #3
  4. dc

    These prices will make Obama unemployed. Too bad he won’t have to stand in the same lines as the rest of the commoner little people.

    #4
  5. DaddyO

    Ha! $4/gal is nothing.
    There’s a plan to increase it to $10/gal.

    http://dailycaller.com/2011/03/30/flashback-obamas-top-energy-aide-advocated-for-10-a-gallon-gas-prices/

    Welcome to the New World Order!!!!!

    #5
  6. Bill in Houston

    The only plus from this will be how quickly Obama’s poll numbers sink, despite the daily massage from the so-called mainstream media.

    Hey Chron guys, remember the outrage when prices rose in 2008? What happened? Oh, wait.

    #6
  7. thanx Obummer

    Thanks Odumma and liberals!

    #7
  8. Topshelf2

    Yep these columnists keep talking this talk and the price keeps going up. It wasn’t too long ago I heard the biggest export of the us was refined gasoline. Its all a bunch of BS in my opinion just like the shortages we have heard of through the years. All BS

    #8
  9. yellow journalism lives

    Oil prices are at about 2/3 of the high seen in 2008. We, as a nation, EXPORT gasoline. What sort of economic mumbo jumbo will they give us for the price of gas being at or near the levels of 2008 without the price of crude attaining the same level?!?! Ready to hear this one!!!

    #9
  10. RulesofEngagement

    Of course it’s going Up-Up-UP. It’s Spring and this BS happens every Spring. Oil companies are making huge profits and gouging the tax payers. Meantime we just bend over and say “more please”.

    #10
  11. David Gower

    Kloza references Keystone & speculators and asserts that high prices now are not related to Keystone. They have studied Keystone to death for 3 years! We could have been a year or two down the road by now. How about the drilling moratorium in the Gulf? Especially shallow water projects. Are these people stupid? You reap a crop this year for what you have sown previously. The impact of the recent EPA rulings to significant refining facilities in the Houston area are not addressed in the article. I guess that Kloza can write that story next year or the years thereafter when gasoline blows past $4 gallon. Maybe the risks of “speculating” about future prices are not that high or difficult.

    #11
  12. sam

    Don’t you just feel like a sucker every time you fill up – If there was a legitimate reason other than greed I could see it? I’m sick of hearing the reasons why as I get fleeced at the gas pumps.

    #12
  13. Dan X. McGraw

    Yellow Journalism, Robert Rapier made an interesting point last month about the U.S. exporting gasoline. If refineries/companies didn’t, you’d likely see less supply coming to those refineries to refiner into products. You’d also see more closures or layoffs.

    #13
  14. Dollar

    I do not understand the concern about exporting refined product.

    If this was a company making … widgets.

    And they import all the raw matierial to manufacture widgets.

    And then export the widgets.

    These same people would think that was a great thing for America. Created jobs, added to the economy, creating more tax revenue to all levels of government.

    They don’t get it ……. and they never will.

    #14
  15. Dollar

    And btw, another question I have.

    I don’t see how a refiner can layoff employees if his operating level falls.

    I would get there exists a tremendous amount of fixed cost in refining, with very little variable cost related to operating level.

    In other words, and I’m guessing, but it takes the same number of employees to operate at 60% , as it does to operate at 85% .

    Sooo even if the oil was not imported to increase their operating capacity, that has no impact on the crack spread.

    Just a guess on my part , however.

    #15
  16. yellow journalism lives

    I admit that the fact that we are able to derive a source of revenue from outside our borders is admirable. I also agree that the employment rate at 60% and 90% are probably about the same as well. Once again, the price of the commodity that produces the gas is not at the level it was the last time gas got this high?! Still want that explained. Or is it just that they are assuning the price of crude will rise to that level due to the tensions?!? Either way its speculative in nature.

    #16
  17. David Gower

    On a per unit basis, fixed costs become variable and variable costs become fixed. Lower volume and high feedstock prices = high price of gasoline.

    #17
  18. Dollar

    yjl, don’t know where you get your data.

    Are you looking at the price of WTI or Brent ? The spread between the two is rising again. Refineries on the Gulf Coast are buying oil based upon the price of Brent, which at this very moment is selling for 118 . WTI is selling for 99.

    Which price are you referring to ?

    In June 2008 , oil spiked to $147 , but it did not stay there long enough to impact the cost of gasoline. It went from around 120 , up to 150, and then fell off in a little over a month. Gasoline prices never reacted to that price spike.

    The last time oil reached the 120 level, gasoline was well over 3.50 per gallon, that was in 2010, April.

    #18
  19. West U Coog

    Right wing nuts have been brainwashed by the elite powers that they need to blame the liberals and anything remotely even green, so that the elite powers can rake in the big bucks. That’s where the money goes when the prices go up, its not supply and demand its all speculative traders lining their pockets. So by distracting them with politics, the elite are raking it in.

    #19
  20. Dollar

    West U Coog, we ” right wing nuts ” , can not help it if you Left Wing Loonies don’t understand business.

    But then, we don’t expect you loonies to understand business, you’re too caught up in touchy feely social issues.

    You out of your league and on the wrong blog.

    #20
  21. Dollar

    Another thing driving me up the wall, is these loonies think oil from KeystoneXL will be exported.

    I mean really, think this out.

    Anchored in the Gulf, off the coast of Galveston, is a tanker of oil from Venezuela that is waiting to enter the ship channel to be off loaded.

    And then KeystoneXL oil would be arriving via the pipeline ( if ever built ) .

    Both oils are the same grade, one comes from the Orinoco tar sands in Venezuela and another comes from the Canadian tar sands.

    Are these people really thinking, that the tanker from Venezuela would be off loaded while the oil from Canada would be loaded on another tanker ??

    That’s absurd. How inefficient is that ????

    Oil is fungible, and bottom line is that we consume millions of bbl more per day than we produce, and we must import the difference.

    #21
  22. Dan X. McGraw

    Dollar, it was my understanding that at least some of the refined product would be exported to other countries. I think that’s why you are seeing Democrats pushing to put requirements where the crude oil goes.

    #22
  23. Dollar

    Nope Dan, I was hoping that was the case , but its not , I heard or read on more than one occasion that the KeystoneXL was merely a ” pass through ” for Canadian oil to get exported globally.

    And of course, once the refiner buys the oil from the producer, they will send the refined product whereever they want.

    How can that be separated from refined product made from Orinoco tar sand oil ?

    It can’t.

    This is nonsense.

    #23
  24. yellow journalism lives

    The prices I reference are as listed on the commodity markets on Bloomberg. I dont know the exact numbers for each day or each type crude. In 2008 the price I reference reached a paek at ~ 147 bbl and gas was right at 4 bucks a gal. The same price I reference is now 98.XX (as of yesterday)and gas is 3.50 gal?!? I may be oversimplifying things but even being dumb the numbers are off and record profits still exist so…..what am I to think?!? Or more importantly what do the “media oulets” want me to think.

    #24
  25. David Gower

    “Refined Product” is no different than Nebraska corn or software. Business sells where they can get the best price for their efforts. The refining process is a “service” that can be sold.

    #25
  26. Dollar

    yjl, at the link is a chart from GasBuddy.com , it appears to me that the price of gasoline and oil are in a normal relationship. Gasbuddy does not say whether they use Brent or WTI as the oil price. Its hard to tell because the two prices have separated in only the past year or so.

    http://www.HoustonGasPrices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx?city1=Houston&city2=&city3=&crude=y&tme=48&units=us

    #26