Daniel Yergin is the preeminent energy historian of our time. He won a Pulitzer with his 1991 book, The Prize. And he may very well get another with his latest tome, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World.
For anyone interested in the factors that lead to how our current energy situation developed and the path that may take us to our energy future, The Quest is a must read. If our political leaders would take a week away for their political food fights and carefully study it, we might finally get a realistic energy policy.
Politicians have been trying to remake our energy world since the first Arab oil embargo over 40 years ago. When one policy after another falls short of grand objectives—energy independence, for example—they shake their heads and re-plow the same ground. In the long run, lawmakers attempting to institute quick fixes for issues they don’t fully understand or simply appease radical factions of their base hinder rather than help these goals.
The fact is today’s energy availability, reliability, and affordability stems from a lengthy, complex process. Consequently, any change to those factors will also take a long time and input from a lot of variables. Yergin notes:
The pace of technological advance is not the only factor affecting the speed of any transition. Another … is the law of long lead times. The energy system is large and complex, with an enormous amount of embedded capital.
The energy commodities aren’t like other consumer products, such as Apple’s iPhone, with engineers and manufacturers able to turn out new, updated devices annually. The lifetime of energy investments span decades.
When people who know the energy business highlight the time and cost required to make significant change, outsiders often treat them as troglodytes or special interests who care nothing about progress or the environment. Yet, Yergin’s work shows why expectations and promises of rapid and radical change in our energy system are a triumph of hope over experience. And worse, they are a great waste of resources, as has been demonstrated over the past 30-plus years.
Yergin calculates that by 2035 “overall global energy consumption may be 35 or 40 percent greater than it is today. The mix will probably not be too different for it is today”. That means our energy will still consist of 75-80% hydrocarbons several decades from now and likely even farther into the future.
If we hope to adjust that mix, knowledge is key. Yergin elaborates:
Developing knowledge and “applying science” come with a price tag. But without sustained long-term support for the entire innovation chain, the world will pay a much larger price. … Underpinning everything else, is the search for knowledge, which advances technology and promotes innovation.
The real lesson from his book, all 717 pages, is summed up in that advice, which itself is quite a challenge given our large budget deficits and calls for a smaller, less intrusive government. Innovation requires a sustained and sustainable investment in education and research and development. Quite a bit will come from the private sector. But the federal government also has a role to play through long term support for basic research and through creation of incentives to spur additional private investment.
There was a time when the federal government provided substantial support for basic research at universities without too many strings or demands for specific outcomes and relevant results. It may not be possible to recreate that situation and indeed it is never practical to go back. But our future, in part, depends on achieving greater emphasis on education, at all levels, as well as on science, engineering, and math.
