Last winter’s rolling blackouts in Texas and the summer’s near-blackouts could occur again in the coming year if extreme weather stresses the power grid more than normal, the state’s grid operator said Thursday.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said it should have enough generating capacity this winter to meet demand during normal and colder-than-normal temperatures, even if some units go offline. But the state may need to trigger rolling blackouts this winter if extreme cold occurs and more units go offline than is normal, a risk that is “very low,” ERCOT President Trip Doggett said.
Separately Thursday, ERCOT predicted an uptick in power demand for summer 2012 and a drop in expected generation capacity from its June forecast. ERCOT said the revision decreases the state’s projected power-reserves cushion by 5 percent in 2012, putting it below where it should be for ensuring reliability when extreme heat occurs and some generators go offline.
ERCOT’s projections for next year come from a 10-year report that suggests the state’s reserve cushion could keep dropping over the next decade without more capacity additions. Doggett said the grid operator is investigating ways to address the concerns and hopes it can encourage some idled units to come back online.
“I don’t think not doing anything is an option,” Doggett said.
The reports highlight the need to reduce energy use and boost efficiency, as the Houston City Council will consider doing mid-next week, “to minimize the threat of rolling blackouts to ensure the lights don’t go out for Houstonians,” said Tessa McClellan, field associate for Environment Texas.
Environmental regulations
ERCOT attributes the decline in projected capacity for 2012 to the idling of units and a slowdown in adding new ones. While the report doesn’t explain why that will happen, ERCOT has raised concerns that future environmental regulations may force some units to shut down or retire, adding to the stress the grid experienced last summer from a record drought.
The report said the expected decline in capacity from earlier forecasts is primarily due to the idling of units and a delay in adding new ones.
Doggett also reiterated ERCOT’s longtime concerns that power plants need more time to comply with the Environmental Protection Agency’s upcoming Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. The regulation will require power plants in Texas and 26 other states to reduce smog- and soot-forming emissions that can cross state lines starting Jan. 1.
Already Dallas-based Luminant Generation Co., Texas’ largest electricity generator, has announced plans to idle two coal-fired generating units as part of a plan to comply with the rule.
Doggett warned that if the same extreme heat and unit outages from last summer occur again and plant shutdowns stemming from the cross-state rule proceed, “we could expect” rolling blackouts this summer.
He said ERCOT “doesn’t have the option” to force Luminant to keep the units online. “We don’t believe we can put them in the position of breaking the law” by violating a regulation, he said.
Doggett said ERCOT’s concerns worsened when it found out a new, nearly 1,000-megawatt coal-fired generating plant, Sandy Creek Energy Station in McLennan County, is delayed because of “an accident that occurred in commissioning.”
Texas also has raised concerns about the EPA’s proposed mercury and air-toxics standards for power plants, which the agency expects to finalize by Dec. 16.
40-year history
EPA Assistant Administrator Gina McCarthy has said repeatedly she’s confident the agency’s rules won’t cause electric reliability problems, all while providing health benefits that far outweigh the costs. Companies have until March 2013 to comply with their choice of technologies or by buying emissions allowances, she told a House panel in September.
She said Thursday the Clean Air Act has mechanisms the agency has used for 40 years to prevent any localized reliability concerns from becoming a reality.
“We make sure that the lights stay on, and we achieve compliance as soon as we can,” McCarthy said.
In October EPA proposed tweaking the cross-state rule to increase Texas’ emissions budget and lift a cap on emissions trading between states for two years. The agency said the technical changes, likely finalized this coming January, should ease the transition into the rule.
Luminant and Texas lawmakers say the proposed changes don’t eliminate their concerns the underlying rule is flawed. State Attorney General Greg Abbott has called the changes “minor.”
Texas, Luminant sue EPA
In September Texas and Luminant asked a federal appeals court to block the rule. They allege the EPA didn’t give Texas enough notice or comment on its inclusion in the full rule or its emissions requirements.
The proposed rule included Texas only for smog-season cuts in nitrogen oxides. But the final rule, issued in July 2011, also included the state for annual cuts in nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxides.
McCarthy said the EPA gave Texas enough notice and comment. She also said Texas took part in a similar George W. Bush-era rule that the EPA is replacing with the cross-state rule under a court order.
After the agency initially proposed excluding Texas from the new rule’s annual program, state power plants indicated to the EPA they would use more coal power and thus contribute more cross-state emissions, McCarthy said.
As a result, EPA added the state to the final rule’s annual program, she said.
“It should not surprise them,” McCarthy said. “They helped us reach that conclusion.”
10-year forecast
ERCOT’s projections for next summer come from a broader 10-year report that suggests the state’s reserves cushion could drop to zero percent by 2020.
More generation capacity is needed to stem that problem, ERCOT said — though the extent to which the analysis already took into account the future addition of more generating units in that time-frame wasn’t immediately clear.
A report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, an organization of regional grid operators, also suggests ERCOT could be the most vulnerable to future environmental rules over the next decade without action to replace power units that retire or are idled.
McCarthy said NERC’s report contains flaws that exaggerate the stringency of the EPA’s rules and also assume companies and states would pick the most costly compliance options.
Electricity industry officials told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission this week that federal agencies should use legal authority they have to give power plants more time to comply with upcoming EPA rules, especially units that are needed to preserve reliability.
This story was last updated at 5:52 p.m.
I don’t mind these blackouts, but it should be done early in the morning, or before it gets too dark. Not during the middle of the hottest part of the day.
This will be caused by the EPA and the Obama Regime. They will not all the production of energy. We are now a 3rd World Country.
How about kicking the EPA in the butox and clean OUT of Texas, then we can fire up all the coal plants they have shut down and we can have the electricity that we pay for.
Remind us just before summer, okay?
“and a larger drop in expected generation capacity”
-
Thank the EPA for forcing the closure of coal and gas-fired plants and claiming solar and wind would fill the gap. Rrrrrriiiiiiigggghhhhttttt. Our energy policies are in the hands of bureaucrats who don’t know squat about our needs.
Although ERCOT’s CDR is more reasonable than it has been in past years, it still assumes ZERO retirements for the next 10 years. That has never happened. Also, the 2012 and 2013 forecast peaks are below the actual peak reached in the very hot summer of 2012. Note that the data behind the report does not include the impact of future environmental rules (e.g. the upcoming Mercury rule).
@richey: the hottest part of the day IS when the reserve margin is at its lowest level, barring when unscheduled outages occur.
@lucky: it’s supply and demand, silly. not EPA, Obama, illegal alliens, or other conspiracy theories.
@dc: firing up dirty, old coal plants would actually raise the cost of electricity for us as they are very inefficient.
Have a nice day!
Yeah, well what can one say……. The weather dudes already predicted this months ago……..
Gaplatt ” are below the actual peak reached in the very hot summer of 2012″
———————–
How can you quote actual peaks for the summer of 2012?
@onevois; it IS the EPA that makes it almost impossible for companies to have the ability (or desire) to create new power plants which goes hand in hand with your supply and demand comment.
YOUR President appoints greenies and social justice types to the EPA, thus no new power plants to support a expanding Texas population.
You have a nice day yourself!
If they know this might be a problem next summer – why don’t they do something about it NOW. Like make sure all maintenance is done prior to then??? Another hose job.
When a producer can “accidently” have to shut down 10% of their production during peak demand and have the price of the other 90% of their production soar from $.06 to $3.60 per kilowatt hour, you will have shutdowns, mark my word.
If “accidental” shutdowns are found to be on purpose, the managers of the company should be held criminally liable for all damage that the shutdown and blackouts caused, even murder if anyone dies as result of traffic lights being out or medical equipment not working.
This is a non-story.
In other news, it will be dark tonight and substantially lighter tomorrow, with a chance of clouds. Must be a slow day at the bureau…
So if you know it’s coming, what are you doing to prevent it? These ERCOT people wouldn’t last very long where I work.
Please back up your wild accusations with facts! Which plant(s) was shut down, because of the EPA?
I thought with deregulation, we were turning over the problem of building power plants to capitalists and the free market system. Well, what that means is that no power plants will be built until the capitalists see a clear trend for high returns. That means, in order for anything to be built in a free market system, there must first be pain for consumers. This is the only way prices can go up.
So, I read this article, and I see “Power Prices set to rise in Texas!” This article is providing the justification for those increases. We will need to have several seasons of these shortages before anyone seriously considers building a new power plant.
Just yesterday Chron had an article stating that there was enough regulatory power/authority to keep that from happening. So which is it?
JimH, I believe the article that you are referring to was based on an EPA report. This is from ERCOT. As a result, it has a different point of view/analysis of the situation.
@ luckyone……”we are now a 3rd world country because of EPA and Obama”????
By all means, please go visit an actual 3rd world country and report back. Idiot
For an agency that was created to regulated improper pesticide use, they have been scheming for more and more power ever since Nixon was forced into signing the document creating them. As he signed the paper his comment was no government organization should be allowed to have this much power.
We need to schedule that EPA court date for the hottest time of the summer and not let anyone leave the room when the power (A/C) goes out. Be sure all the politicians, regulators, attorneys, environmentalists, etc, etc get subpoened to testify and tell them to take their time building their case. The last one to pass out wins!
4.4 gigawatts!! ~ In my best Emmett “Doc” Brown Impression
I say it’s time for an “Occupy Power Plant” movement in which groups of conerned citizens guard plants against Fed goons threatening to shut them down.
Throw out the million or so illegals and we won’t have any problems.
Why don’t more people take this into their OWN hands by installing solar panels for their homes? While they won’t help in the middle of the night in winter, they will help big time on those how summer days, when electricity prices peak as the temperatures do.
And we want to have electric cars be one of the main ways we stop using petroleum? It appears they may need to be a plan b…
Nixon forced?, what did they do hold his dog hostage? It was put in place because of the mess that had been made and not cleaned up. Business brought this on themselves by being irresposible and now we are palying.
@Dicky: ERCOT reached a peak of 68,379MW on 3Aug2011.
I love how they always say “We are concerned”, well if you were really concerned, you would fix the fing problem already!
The power generator’s who acted in good faith and began years ago to upgrade their pollution controls based on the Bush-era regs should be sitting pretty right now. But wait, are there any who did so??
This story just shows the generator’s delaying ways have failed in both reducing pollution AND in providing necessary supply.
To me it seems like de-regulation is not working very well if we have to wait until shortages cause price hikes before producers will spend capital on new plants and on pollution improvements to old plants.
How about the northerners have rolling blackouts this winter. Why do they get the cheap rates and special treatment for their winters yet we, who actually produce the oil they use, pay higher prices and are threatened with blackouts. Cut the yankees out for a changes instead of continually punishing the south. The war has been over more than a century, yet they still treat us like the illegitimate kids at the family reunion.
However, Rolling Thunder is totally out of the question!
Fools will blame the EPA. This is Third World crud brought to us by the political party in control: the Republicans.
Mike H wrote: ..”will help big time on those how summer days.”
——————————————————–
Need to do a little reseach as to how much power a solar panel puts out. It’s not going to run your A/C on those hot summer days.
Something you can do is install a gas powered electric generator.
You got the CBS…
And the ABC…
You got Chron.com and Newsweek!
Well, they’re the same to me!
Now don’t you wanna get right with me?
I hope you get everything you need
Got your Gulf and Western and your MasterCard
(Puzzling Evidence)
Got what you wanted, lost what you had
(Puzzling Evidence)
I’m seeing
Puzzling Evidence
Puzzling Evidence
Puzzling Evidence
Well I hope you’re happy with what you’ve made
In the land of the free and the home of the brave
gaplatt, you should have stopped your first statement at “squat”.
Thank you Obama and his EPA.
Hey you guys are in the business fix it! That’s like Dennys saying eggs only on Tue & Thur
It won’t matter how much power generation we have, because it is predicted that massive solar storms will knock out our power grids. And everything that uses electricity. Or so says Chicken Little.
Electric Reliability Council of Texas
I guess the ‘Reliability’ part is questionable. Seems like someone isn’t doing their job. Texas is growing and the infrastructure needs to grow also. Get to work, ERCOT.
Should Katy evacuate?
Just remember when they do occur across the nation who to thank. obama
said he would break the power producing companies or bankrupt them. so
far he has carried out this threat. Oh by the way statement by obama
was made prior to the 2008 elections, unfortunatley the new medias, and
so called “free press” refused to publish that little fact. Just like
they refused to properly check out his qualifiation to sit in the White
House. Neither they nor the “Professional Politiicans”, their parties
ever bother to actually check and verify his claim to be an American citizen, his travel documents, his passport, his social security irregularities or any of his college transcripts or cerdentials. There
were so many problems that the American public were not aware of that it
is criminal. Still the press is so bent on socialism that they refuse
to acknowledge that obama and his supporters backed, and organized the
occupy group around the nation.
What if we declared electricity a necessary public utility and regulated its production?
Don’t mind the blackouts? Do you not recall the unGodly expensive bills that we had to pay for THEIR inadequacy the last time they did these rolling blackouts? They don’t want to spend money to get their stuff together – why do it, when they can shut down capacity and then make oodles of money off of us afterwards?
then stop development!!!!! not enough electricity not enough water duh!! to many people!! stop development. used houses gonna get more valuable when you stop building new houses!!!! TAX THE RICH!!!
The President of ERCOT’s nickname is Trip? …as in tripped breaker?
COME ON!!!
ERCOT (now, there’s an oxymoron) is just too dumb and costly to be allowed to continue this bumbling. Deregulation by TX Lege and Perry caused generating shortages, allowing generators to just shortchange consumers to jack up earnings. More spinning reserve must be required. Stop this madness!
Always blaming the regulations. Just like the banks did, and food companies that poisoned us (heard about the Craisin recall – probably not). I spent a lot of time out in West Texas this summer, and those wind turbines were doing really well. Never saw oil flowing out of them or dead wildlife around them. Solar worked well here in Austin, since there were so many cloudless days. Make alternative energy cheap, I’ll put up one of those solar/wind combination units (Bluenergy) in my backyard, and go off the grid. Makes a lot more sense than more inefficient power stations. Less energy loss over the 200 feet to my house than a 400 mile high power line.
Blame poor management at Luminant, not these rules! NRG has no problem complying and won’t be shutting down any plants due to these rules. Luminant didn’t plan properly and doesn’t have the capital to make the badly needed upgrades at these plants. NRG-doing things the right way. Luminant-doing things the wrong way and blaming others for their problems.
All the deregulation comments really have nothing to do with this as this problem is affecting the entire state…and the entire state is far from deregulated.
And all of you that now have the new “smart meter” on your house will be the first to be shut down. A flip of a switch and you are, literally, powerless. But, remember, these meters are there to help you, to notify the Power Company when the power is out before you even call to notify them.
why aren’t they investing in our infrastructure? you can’t expect 100 yrs old technology to last forever your stupid morons
Maybe if power plants used coal from Appalachia rather than Texas coal we wouldn’t be seeing this. Texas coal is about as efficient as peat moss, and more dirty than the stuff that comes out of any given Chinese power plant. However, power plants aren’t forced to use anything other than cheap Texas coal that drives down their costs and raises the costs on the consumer. Deregulation obviously isn’t working.
thank you Obama for using the EPA to shutdown electricity to the red states!!!
I see some of you can figure out that these blackouts are nothing but a scam by the electricity generating companies, much as big oil makes phony excuses to raise the price of gasoline.
But sadly, I can also see many who continue to believe the anti-government and anti-regulation conservative propaganda.
Great timing, what with the car makers pushing more & more electric cars on us instead of turbodiesels like they do in the rest of the world.
Hey, you expect electricity providers to SPEND money to have excess capacity, when they can let the supply shrink, put us in rolling blackouts, and be able to make more money because of the scarcity of the product?
This is the fallacy of commercializing infrastructure — those who provide it make more money letting it collapse than they do maintaining it and keeping ample reserve. Austin is the only place in Texas that did not join in the commercialization, and they have lower bills without blackouts.
There is something fundamentally wrong with the energy capital of the world having the same blackouts as North Korea. If this is the best corporate suppliers can do, then this country is doomed.
This is almost exactly what Enron did in California in 1990 in order to falsely jack up electricity prices and increase their profits.
It was illegal then, and it’s still illegal now.
The difference is that Texas doesn’t have any elected officals with the courage, or desire, to stand up to their political patrons and say no.
Write to our Senators and your Congressman and let them know what’s going on here in “fly over” country.
I hear there will be no “rolling blackouts” in DC plus they can do plenty of insider trading. Also there’s plenty of jet fuel for The One and FLOTUS when they take separate jets to the same destination. It’s easy to spend someone else’s money. They did that this summer when they vacationed with the 1% at the “vineyard”. WE CAN’T WAIT FOR REGIME CHANGE!!!
Dear Egon:
Remember:
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said it should have enough generating capacity this winter to meet demand during normal and colder-than-normal temperatures, even if some units go offline. But the state may need to trigger rolling blackouts this winter IF extreme cold occurs and more units go offline than is normal, a risk that is “very low,” ERCOT President Trip Doggett said.
The key word here is “if” it happened. Mr. Doggett isn’t saying it’s imminent. Wouldn’t it make sense to you that we’d be fine if we have a mild winter?
At least you have forewarning. Move NOW!
(is THAT the message?)……
What is the purpose of the Environmental Protection Agency? I’ll bet there is more than one educated fool that has posted here today that doesn’t even know what that ancronym EPA stands for. Why does the EPA want to shut down coal fired power plants that are not in compliance? Because the sulfides coming out of their stacks combines with water vapor to produce ‘acid rain’ something that kills trees and ruins the nice finish on yur Hummer.
Off and on-
Those carefree days are gone.
What a bunch of crap. FIX THE PROBLEM!! How many years has this been going on now and we aren’t doing anything different??
Oh yeah, and Reliant will probably soon ask for a hike in some more charges that no one can identify…legislature included…
Big O… LMFAO.
richeyrich: how stupid are you?
Now, this was posted:
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/12/02/energy-dept-study-finds-stricter-versions-of-epa-rules-wont-threaten-electric-reliability/