LONDON — Following is a list of production forecasts for Libyan crude oil production by bank analysts and researchers after anti-government rebels declared an end to the 42-year rule of Moammar Gadhafi.
Output from Libya, which holds Africa’s largest oil reserves, slumped to 60,000 barrels a day in July compared with 1.7 million barrels in January, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.
The country’s crude exports have been shuttered amid six months of fighting between anti-government rebels and forces loyal to Gadhafi.
Barclays: 250,000 to 500,000 by year-end into first quarter 2012, analysts said.
Wood Mackenzie Consultants: As much as 600,000 within three months of the end of hostilities and assuming little damage to facilities; recovery to 1.6 million may take three years, said Ross Cassidy, an Edinburgh, Scotland-based analyst.
IHS Global Insight: 250,000 by year-end; exports of as much as 1.2 million within a year, contingent on security, said Samuel Ciszuk, senior Middle East energy analyst.
Eurasia Group: No more than 400,000 by fourth quarter, analysts said.
NGP Energy Capital Management: 500,000 to 800,000 in six months; full capacity may take three years, Anas F. Alhajji, chief Management LLC economist said.
Goldman Sachs: 250,000 barrels next year, with potential to increase to 585,000 by end 2012 if rebels gain control of western production and export facilities, analysts said.
Economist Intelligence Unit: Full production in two to three years, Intelligence assuming “smooth” transition to a more Unit democratic government, said Caroline Bain, London- based analyst.