*Update:
ERCOT says Texas power customers don’t need to conserve Tuesday afternoon — despite what at the moment looking like a near challenge for the Texas record of 65,776 MW, which occurred on Aug. 23, 2010.
As of 3 p.m. ERCOT said the projected peak load at 5 p.m. today could be 65,419 MW. That’s much more than the 63,898 megawatts originally expected as the summer peak.
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The state’s main electric grid operator is calling for Texans to be frugal in their power usage during the peak hours of 4 p.m. to 7 p.m., but that doesn’t mean the state’s on the verge of an energy crisis.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas says the peak demand forecast for today (Tuesday) is 64,255 megawatts (at least as of 8:30 a.m.). That number often changes throughout the day, and you can find the latest update here.
The call for conservation follows the issuing of an Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 at 3:30 p.m. Monday, when reserves dropped below 2,300 MW due to the unexpected loss of about 2,000 MW of generation. The alert was canceled at 4:55 p.m. as additional plants were brought online and the ones that went down resumed operation.
Demand peaked at 62,762 MW between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m., which was lower than the earlier forecast of more than 65,000 MW.
It’s still not clear why the plants went down (ERCOT is not required to release that information publicly for several months), but we do know it was three older natural gas-fired units, with at least two of them in the Houston area. If we find out more we’ll report on it.
Judging from some reader comments following yesterday’s events, some interpret the warnings as an indication of the weakness of Texas’ power grid.
But ERCOT (and the Texas Public Utility Commission which has the most direct responsibility for overseeing ERCOT at the state level) is in a bit of a Catch-22 situation when it comes to telling the public about changes in the supply-demand balance on the grid.
It was criticized by lawmakers for giving inadequate warnings one spring day in 2006 when unseasonably warm weather led to rolling blackouts in the state. So officials ramped up a public warning system and started using it regularly to encourage conservation. ERCOT later adjusted the system as the public began disregarding near-constant conservation warnings.
Is ERCOT having more mini-power crises these days than in the past? It’s hard to say without reviewing the operating histories of all the state’s utilities, but the public certainly has greater access to more information on the status of the state’s power grid on a hour-by-hour basis today than it did a decade ago.
It seems more likely power warnings like yesterday’s were largely unreported — or at least unnoticed by the general public — in the past.
Just as a reminder, here are the three warning levels ERCOT now uses:
Level 1 allows ERCOT to bring on uncommitted generation and power from neighboring grids. This is the level reached Monday, although it does not appear power was tapped from neighboring grids via DC ties.
Level 2calls for dropping load-resource customers (large industrial/commercial customers who have been paid to accept the risk of interruption – Load Resources) which reduces load by approximately 1,100 MW. The second part of Level 2 calls for additional interruptible loads in the load-reduction program (Emergency Interruptible Loads) to be dropped if needed to maintain system frequency.
At Level 3, ERCOT instructs the utilities to reduce demand on the grid by conducting temporary outages at the local distribution level. These controlled temporary interruptions of electrical service – or rotating outages – typically last 15-40 minutes before being rotated to a different neighborhood. This is what happened during the Feb. 2 cold snap in Texas.
problems in winter, problems in summer. electric cars?
I suspect there’s not alot of sympathy for the power companies’ plight because the high rates as a result of deregulation, although high rates in general will dampen usage.
More or less business as usual. In the old regulated days a utility liked to have much bigger generating margins, on the order of 15-20%. And they were perfectly happy to overbuild to that level, because they would get paid for the larger assets. Sometimes actual growth fell behind forecasts, and so margins grew in big leaps when a new plant came online. Stuff like this is going to happen when you try to get by with a 5% margin.
Texas electricity regulators say new federal environmental rules could cause enough power generators to shut down that it could threaten outages.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the state power grid, released a study on Wednesday showing that new rules from the Environmental Protection Agency could cause operators of older natural gas-fired plants to shut them down rather than spend the money to comply. But it depends on whether the EPA will require an expensive type of retrofit or if something cheaper will do.
Shutdowns could reduce Texas’ extra power plant capacity to meet emergencies to 2 percent in 2015 if no replacement plants are built, the study says. And right now, power prices are too low to lure investors to new power plants projects.
ERCOT’s target is 13.75 percent, and the state grid currently exceeds the target.
I have always been a sipper as opposed to a gulper because I cannot afford high energy prices. Too bad more people do not try to conserve. I hear now you can rent solar panels. That’s a thought for the gulpers. They may actually not only save some money, but also conserve energy. A win win situation if you ask me!
“It was were criticized by lawmakers for giving inadequate warnings one spring day in 2006″
Seriously Tom? It was were?
I will use all the power I want because they are charging me. If this was a charity then it’d be different but we have the highest rates in the country so there is no excuse for this. I dare you to have rolling black outs.
I expect to go home and find my clocks flashing.
Is THIS what the commercialized grid gives us? 100 power companies, but none of them want to actually provide power that we pay for because it cuts into their profits?!
In the winter, their generators freeze up when we need heat. In the summer, they fail when we need cooling. If this grid was an employee, I’d fire him for malingering! And if this is the best example of how the open market is better than government run utilities, with higher prices and such pathetic capacity, I’d say we were better off 10 years ago with the government run utilities!
This will get worse every year – as more and more people migrate to our state and area, we will have less and less for everyone. This, of course, will eventually include the basic necessities of natural resources, such as water.
We will be opening windows when Obama lives up to his campaign promise to bankrupt the coal power plants.
Isn’t utility deregulation grand?
Face it, our rate of consumption is not sustainable.
Apparently, in this section of The Woodlands, we’re not on ERCOT’s power grid. Tied into East Texas/Louisiana through Entergy. Great until a storm comes up through Sabine Pass.
I’m really glad our electrical grid is deregulated and privatized. Could you imagine the condition of it if a bunch of bleeding heart Libs stepped in and slapped a bunch of rules and regulations on it and then price-fixed it?
The ranchers and farmers shut down TXU plans for a huge coal fire plant due to the pollution damage to crops,livestock,water and humans.Coal is not the answer.
So far no problem in the socialist-regulated portion of the state.
This is like everything else going on with our electric companies.They are there for the money not the customers. The PUC is also useless in these matters also.We pay thats ALL.That’s our GOVERNMENT FOR US ALL..
Sure, I’ll conserve energy.
Wait, no need to panic? Oh and it’ll still be blazing hot? Right… Well then, AC back to full power, got to keep it a comfortable 68 degrees inside afterall.
tejanoneck, that’s a good point. The 4pm to 7pm stretch is so bad because people return home from work and turn down their a/c. Now imagine them getting home, turning down the a/c, turning on the oven and/or stove and now plugging in a 220V 60amp (I’m guessing) car to charge. Wow, I can see the ERCT hopping onto our “smart” meters now and saying, “No, I don’t think so.” Now, when I have the choice of turning on the a/c so the house isn’t 85 OR cooking dinner for my kids OR charging my car to go to work the next day, I’ll ask myself, “Why the heck did I buy this stupid electric car?” Then I’ll say, “That’s right, the government made me.”
If you’re not using it, turn it off!
the old “talk out of both sides of the mouth ” gig
Omega_Man. I’m asking this because I do not know the answer. What profit margin are the electric companies making each year? If it is 10%, and regulation would mean 30% lower electric costs, how are the regulated companies able to keep from going out of business? Are the regulated companies subsidized by the government. Like I said, I don’t know the answers to these questions, but do you?
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OK, before I hit the submit button, I researched Centerpoint’s profit margin. It’s 5.72% – http://ycharts.com/companies/CNP/profit_margin
So if CenterPoint is making 5.72%, at 5.73% it is losing money. So my question becomes, how are regulated companies able to charge significantly less without going out of business? Are they subsidized?
Downsize that house, go solar, get a car that is a gas sipper, and sleep comfortably. It really does save money. You know those energy costs and the temperature are only going up.
The state’s main electric grid operator is calling for Texans to be frugal in their power usage during the peak hours of 4 p.m. to 7 p.m.,
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Someone really should consider making this public announcement in Spanish.
Just sayin……
Building a case for CenterPoints Fayetteville highline project.
Good factual article Tom. I would like to see you do a future article on the reduced response time needed for generators to spin up due to implementation of “Smart Grid” components. There may be some real world examples (someday?) to contrast where we are getting Smart versus where we are not yet Smart.
Mark from Louisiana – Thanks for your input to complete our perspective of the situation.
I WONDER HOW THE ELECTRIC CAR WILL EFFECT THE POWER GRID IN THE YEARS TO COME
HEADLINE: Texans are asked to power down
Hmm, it seems as though the team complied last year without being asked to do so. With the looming lockout / strike, is a mandate for the inept Kubiak run offense led by Schaub et. al. to “power down” really necessary?
If we really are having “power shortages” AGAIN, then why don’t employers that can – go over to 4- 10 hour shifts and turn up the thermostat/shut off all lights etc from Thur afternoon when everyone leaves until Mon morning when they return? It is the same 40 hr shift, but less utilities used on Friday.. There are many employers that can’t do this, but there are many that can… Why not try it? It would save fuel costs for getting to work on Friday, too.
As for our home, it is a new “GREEN” one and we are already as energy efficient as possible. We do all we can to keep our energy costs down when we go to work.
It’s Obama and the EPA. They hate energy that does not come from a windmill. Soon we will be on the same level of energy as an 3rd world country. Hope & Change ya’ll.
Whatsamatta? No wind blowing in West Texas to power those ridiculous windmills? I thought that’s why we non-wind customers had to pay ransom to hook them into our grid.
Oh My God…Where are the people with Obama’s electric cars going to plug in….
Luckyone: Getting your new build permits is not the problem. Getting financing is. ERCOT now says that if no plants shut down due to future EPA regs, we still need significant capacity additions by 2014. It takes about 2 1/2 to 3 years to build a plant. ERCOT says that the current market prices do not support a new plant (I am made painfully aware of this at work). What do you think will happen to prices in the next few years?
Peter, CenterPoint is still regulated. You do not buy power from CP, they just deliver it.
I’ll be in Austin later this week to discuss the coming capacity shortage with the PUC. Should be interesting…
I just finished a book on things we could do to live sustainably. There was one tale about a Scandinavian country where they were trying to get people to go easy on the electricity demands they were placing on existing capacity. Nothing seemed to work. Then finally someone noticed that people living in older houses were using significantly less than those living in newer ones. They couldn’t figure out why because the newer ones were supposed to be slightly more energy efficient than the older ones.
Then someone actually went to the various houses to find out what was going on. Seems the newer houses had their meters located in the basements while the older ones had their meters installed in the front hallways. Can you take it from there?
Just the placement of the meters where the home owners could see their usage everyday was enough to get them to conserve.
Sometimes it’s the simplest things that everyone overlooks.
No, you do it. I will not. if the power grid goes offline. I will go stay at the hilton.
This is all W’s fault!
Hating on the power company was a sport way back when everything was regulated. You think we never had blackouts then? For some people there is about as much rationality as when my dog sees a mailman.
Another fine article, Tom! Are you helping clueless Loren learn about energy policy, commodities, and the like yet? Some of these posts are thoughtful and quite EDUCATED…specifically, Charles Hickson, M. Johnson, Mark from Louisana, SaltWaterCroc, David Gower, and certainly GAPlatt! All very factual!!! Of course, then there is the usual uneducated statements that perpetuate untruths (the highest prices in the country) and poor attempts at propagating their political views that don’t really have anything to do with the discussion (Republicans and “deregulation”; Democrats and EPA/windmills). Thanks to those nosepickers for not being afraid to show their lack of intelligence!! You make us laugh!!!
M. Johnson – Ireally loved your remark about the sport of “hating on the power company” and how it relates to dogs and mailmen!! Factual and quite humerous! BRAVO!!!
It is not hating on the power companies to note facts like a) our prices are higher than in Austin, where the public utility still functions and buys the same fuel on the open market, b) our power which used to be reliable has become unreliable, since no company wants to spend capital for new generators, and c) despite all your free-market call to red-state arms, deregulation has NOT eliminated wasteful activity — it has merely moved the waste costs to hiring more managers, paying for advertisement (something not necessary before) and paying profits to shareholders (again something not necessary before) and outrageous CEO and Board salaries (yet again something not necessary before).
We are not hating on power companies just for pointing out that the Emperor has no clothes. Only those who kiss up to the Emperor refuse to see the truth — Texas as an energy capital for the world is becoming a joke when the people can’t afford it and the providers can’t afford to supply it. If we are paying lots more and getting much less, then where oh where is the success here? Take a look at Austin’s power grid sometime — we don’t hear about them having rolling blackouts or folks being told to turn off their Air Conditioners, now do we?
Shouldn’t we be conserving all the time? Sorry, I’m not pushing my thermostat up any higher. It is hot enough in here already.