Texas may break peak power prediction mark today *update*

So much for educated guesses.

Earlier this month Texas’ grid operator, ERCOT, said it expected this summer’s peak electricity usage to be 63,898 megawatts, nearly 2,000 MW less than last summer’s record-breaking peak of 65,776 MW set on Aug. 23.

These seasonal peak estimates are based in large part on economic forecasts, so it might appear that ERCOT was saying the outlook for Texas’ economy wouldn’t be quite as robust this summer as last.

This month’s record-breaking heat seems to be foiling that peak power use prediction, however.

A screen shot from www.ercot.com today June 15, 2011, shows the predicted power peak for ERCOT.

ERCOT’s daily forecast for peak usage today (Wednesday, June 15, 2011) has steadily risen from 62,665 MW this morning to 64,035 MW — nearly 140 MW more than what we’re supposed to expect as our summer peak.

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Update:

ERCOT updated their prediction again this afternoon and it *now* (3:22 p.m.) appears the prediction is for 63,101 MW, below the predicted peak.

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We won’t really know today’s true peak until about 5 p.m. — typically the peak time of usage — but it’s looking like the annual summer peak prediction will have been a bust.

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Update:

As of 5:30 p.m. ERCOT’s forecast peak dropped to 62,563 MW, still below the predicted peak. The grid operator reported usage at 5:30 at 62,708 MW.

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This doesn’t mean we’re in any danger of power issues, like rolling blackouts. It just means the educated guesses of our state’s power watchers will need further review.

12 Comments

  1. James

    We are going to blow that record out of the water this summer. God Bless Texas and anyone without A/C right now…

    #1
  2. jack

    ERCOT is the problem!

    #2
  3. Hotpuppy

    62805 as of 5:07pm…. overshot by 240 MW which is not a small number.

    #3
  4. Hotpuppy

    The interesting thing is we have about 10,000 MW of Installed wind capacity… which yesterday producted about 6,000MW of electricity….. which is 9 to 17% of our electricity needs. I was expecting less. Glad to see that we actually are tapping some renewable, even though it is not the total solution.

    #4
  5. BOB

    I just hope one thing – that the commie in the whitehouse shuts our power down. All AMERIKANS must suffer.

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    ITS IN THE CARDS
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    http://www.aim.org/aim-column/obamas-communist-mentor/

    #5
  6. ntangle

    The highest load I saw was 63,100 MW @ 5:00 pm.
    Here’s the “system-wide demand” @ 15 min intervals:

    Time MW
    15:15 62074
    15:30 62416
    15:45 62213
    16:00 62579
    16:15 62727
    16:30 62902
    16:45 63046
    17:00 63100
    17:15 62864
    17:30 62710
    17:45 62742
    18:00 62650

    #6
  7. liz J

    Bob got out again

    #7
  8. IAMKing

    Just a few weeks ago, ERCOT announced that they had plenty of capacity for this and that we would absolutely not see any rolling blackouts this year. Now, in June, we are already surpassing their peak estimated usage.

    I say we build some natural gas and coal power plants and prevent the eco-lawsuits that prevent progress. We need power to support the large number of illegal immigrants in Texas.

    #8
  9. Art Vandeley

    Texas needs to stop selling electricity to other states and keep some for it’s own citizens. Texas could burn and the obama administration would sit by and watch with glee.

    #9
  10. Just get ready for some rolling brownouts browneyed one’s. This is just the primer to let you know that not only will you be without power on the hotest days this summer, but your bills will skyrocket.

    It is all politics as usual.

    #10
  11. Dave C

    By my estimate, they were only off by 3%. doesn’t sound like much of an error to me.

    #11
  12. lawrence

    glad I got a honda generator, if we ever get rolling black-outs, I needn’t worry one iota!

    #12