This week the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the power grid for the state’s deregulated market, said it expects the state will have plenty of power to meet peak electricity demand this summer. That’s reassuring after a colder-than-expected winter produced rolling blackouts in February. ERCOT’s annual summer assessment, though, assumes that electricity demand will fall this summer from last year’s record. ERCOT now says it should have plenty of reserve cushion to meet that demand, although an assessment earlier in the year raised concerns about ERCOT’s ability to meet demand over the longer term.
In its latest assessment, ERCOT predicts that sluggish employment growth and long-term average temperature forecasts should ensure its reserve cushion is now adequate through 2013. That raises two concerns. The first is that this economic recovery, such as it is, is proving to be a jobless one. Employment gains have lagged other economic indicators, which could mean we see greater electricity demand despite the lack of hiring.
The bigger concern though is the temperature forecast. The Chronicle’s SciGuy has analyzed three long-term forecasts for the summer and found a consensus that calls for a hotter-than-normal season, which would seem to contradict ERCOT’s predictions. So the question is whose forecast is most accurate.
All of these numbers are rather squishy, but the concern for electricity customers is that ERCOT may simply be tweaking its demand forecast to make the reserve cushion appear bigger than it is. If that’s the case, we could face a repeat of last February’s blackouts during the searing heat of an above-average Texas summer.
Loren, per your headline, does ERCOT have any weather expertise on staff or under contract? To a certain extent, the failure to account for the “widespread” nature of the February coldsnap is what caused the problem. All areas of the state experienced cold within their fairly normal range but in aggregate the cold event was abnormal.
ERCOT is about as accurate as their ‘Smart Meters’. You know, the ones that are doubleing and tripleing utility bills. No wonder California turned on these digital contraptions pushed on us by greedy companies. They ‘smart’ all right, especially when you get your first post-installation bill. Ban these peak hour crook enablers.