World oil production will continue to grow in the next two decades, according to a Cambridge Energy Research Associates study, despite recent trends that have bolstered the arguments of some that “Peak Oil” is imminent.
“A radically different oil markets landscape has evolved in the past year,” says Peter Jackson, a senior director at IHS-CERA . “A drop in demand caused by the economic recession has provided a supply cushion that has moved supply concerns to the backburner for the next few years.”
| No oil shortage anytime soon, says IHS-CERA.
Production will grow from the current level of 92 million barrels per day to as much as 115 million barrels per day by 2030, CERA says, based on a study of more than 1,000 oil fields.
Exploration and production investments have been curtailed with the recession, but upgrades to fields, where companies try to squeeze more out of them, “have tended to replace global production of 30 billion new barrels (bnb) per annum in recent years.”
And the first three quarters of 2009 have produced discoveries with collective reserves of more than 8 billion barrels, CERA notes, not including “the revisions and extensions which are so important to reserves growth.”
“Multi-billion barrel discoveries, such as those of the Subsalt Brazil, as well as those in Offshore West Africa and Offshore East Africa, continue to emerge. And new giant discoveries in Iraq also create the potential for that country to double its capacity by 2020, the report finds.
Above-ground issues, such as global economic growth, project costs, government policies on taxes and access to reserves, and climate change legislation will be some of the biggest drivers that will influence the numbers.
The folks at The Oil Drum will continue to stick by their past peak oil analyses, however. Here’s a listing of their recent posts that counter CERA arguments, starting with the “Peak occurred in 2008” entry.