A grim supply picture from IEA

The Paris-based International Energy Agency has revised its outlook for oil and gas supply from countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries so often it’s become routine.
But this week the agency’s medium-term oil market report took a more startling turn, as noted by Barclays Capital today:
“In short, after years of systematically over-estimating the potential for non-OPEC supply growth, the IEA has concluded that it looks to be dead in the water.”
Not right now, but soon. The IEA says supply growth in non-OPEC countries will fall to nothing in 2012. Also, the growth in that interim includes estimates for biofuels, refinery processing gains and the take from Canada’s oil sands. Without that. Barclays says the IEA forecast “looks extremely weak indeed.”
Barclays also says it will reveal its own detailed 2009 non-OPEC figures in the next few weeks, and warned that so far the picture looks “pretty grim.”

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